Since this website was first put up in 1999,
the scientific view of global warming as a result of excess carbon in the atmosphere
has clarified from uncertain to convinced.
Electrosolar has comissioned an independent statistical analysis (by David Holden, MA Oxon) of
accumulated carbon in the atmosphere..
In this section we display the results showing
the likely accumulation, derived both
from known sources of fossil fuel use, and from the extrapolated Mauna Loa atmospheric data.
From the trend in energy use and population we can derive a prediction
for energy use per person in the near future.
To avoid the climate catastrophies of global warming -
namely economic and political disruption and their horrific consequences - we must
think QUANTITATIVELY of achieving this energy requirement (1.5kW/person) from zero carbon sources.
Of course, improved energy efficiency may bring down this target figure a bit, and even in the most optimistic
scenario, there will still be some fossil fuel use. A balance will be struck, but we do need
to strive to obtain ~1KW per person from non fossil sources.
This graph shows how excess carbon has built up in the atmosphere as a result of burning fossil fuels. Approximately sixty percent of all carbon so far emitted is currently retained in the atmosphere, the remainder having been absorbed by other carbon sinks, mainly the oceans.
Data: The total carbon emissions are obtained
from CDIAC. Excess atmospheric carbon is computed
from the Mauna Loa data, assuming a preindustrial baseline of 280 ppm CO2 ( 1
ppm CO2 ~ 2.18 GT C)